Discussion on how the inverted yield curve in August 2019 provided insight into market bets that seemed to predict the ...

An inverted yield curve is a good, if imperfect, recession indicator. The economy has been resilient to the latest inversion.

Inverted yield curves happen when bonds with shorter maturity periods have higher yields than bonds with longer maturity periods. Under normal circumstances, it’s the other way around. Since ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I show you how to save and invest. Yield curve inversion has historically predicted U.S. recessions with greater accuracy than ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

The most direct implication of inverted yield curve is not a recession, but that yields will be lower in the future than they are today. Of course, a recession could cause this, but it doesn't have to ...

When it comes to the U.S. economy, an inverted yield curve is like the monster under the bed: It’s always lurking, but it doesn’t always come out. Recently it has, however, which could be an early ...

Later in this article, I will display a chart revealing a consistent pattern of when a recession is most likely to begin. From a trader's viewpoint, pattern recognition is essential for successful ...

You know that once-mythical soft landing thing that Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee referenced in his recent interview with Marketplace? It’s the thing where inflation is tamed but ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 09: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on January 09, 2023 in New York City. The stock market closed with mixed results ...

The yield curve is a graphical representation that plots the interest rates of bonds with equal credit quality but varying maturity dates. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher ...